Which 2018 elections could affect redistricting

Governor race
Legislative race
Both governor and legislative races
No relevant race
AK CA CO DC ID IL IA KY LA MD MN MO NY Jazz Women's Sneakers Saucony Original Burgundy Originals CL OR TN TX VA Sneakers CL Burgundy Originals Saucony Original Women's Jazz WI AL AZ AR IN KS ME CT DE GA HI SC SD MA MI MS NE NV NH NJ NM NC ND RI OH OK PA FL MT UT VT WV WY

Use the map or the dropdown to explore other states

In

, the 2018 elections will not affect the redrawing of district maps. In California, districts are drawn by an independent commission.

In many states, the winners of 2018 races for governor and state legislative seats will wield considerable power: The once-per-decade responsibility to redraw congressional maps.

After the 2020 Census provides an updated account of where people live, it will be up to the states to adjust their districts to fit that new reality. Elections to the U.S. House will operate under the new maps starting in 2022 and for the following 10 years.

In all, 29 governors and more than 800 state legislators who could have a hand in the new maps will be selected in November, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

In some states, the process has brought with it gerrymandering — the drawing of districts to advantage or disadvantage one party or race — tilting the makeup of the U.S. House and resulting in years of legal challenges.

How it works in each state

The most common method for mapping out changes vests power in the state legislature, with approval needed from the governor. This year, many of those states are electing at least a portion of their state Senate that will be in place for redistricting.

Some states have commissions intended to remove biased tinkering with the maps. And some sparsely populated states don’t need to draw districts at all.

districts are drawn by an independent commission. Politicians do not control the process. The governor cannot veto the lines.

Key 2018 races for redistricting:

Governor

Legislative

Both

None

Key 2018 races for redistricting:

Governor

Legislative

Both

None

Sneakers CL Women's Saucony Originals Burgundy Jazz Original State legislature

Districts are drawn by the state legislature, and often must be approved by the governor, though that is not always the case.

Politically appointed commissions

A group of commissioners appointed by legislative leaders or parties holds primary responsibility for the lines.

Independent commission

Districts are drawn by an independent commission. Members are appointed by nonpolitical state officials.

Single-district states

If the 2020 Census doesn’t show major population changes, these states will continue to have only one representative in the U.S. House, so they don’t need to draw districts.

Congressional seats are adjusted every 10 years to account for where people live. States gain or lose districts if large population shifts are shown in the decennial Census. The map below shows an estimate of how state totals might change after the 2020 Census.

States that are projected to gain or lose U.S. House seats in 2022

Key 2018 races for redistricting:

Governor

Legislative

Both

None

GAIN

LOSE

Alabama –1

Texas +3

Illinois –1

Florida +2

Michigan –1

Arizona +1

Minnesota –1

Colorado +1

New York –1

North Carolina +1

Ohio –1

Oregon +1

Pennsylvania –1

Rhode Island –1

W. Virginia –1

Key 2018 races for redistricting:

Governor

Legislative

Both

None

OR

+1

MN

–1

NY

Women's Originals Saucony CL Sneakers Jazz Original Burgundy –1

MI

–1

RI –1

PA

–1

OH

–1

IL

–1

CO

+1

WV

–1

NC

+1

AZ

+1

AL

–1

TX

+3

FL

+2

Census estimates that reflect how people have shifted since 2010 show states in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest losing seats and states in the South and West gaining them.

Boundaries are also adjusted to account for movement within states. (States need to go through this process for state-level legislative districts as well, though they don’t necessarily handle it the same way.)

In the past, politicians have drawn favorable maps that can misrepresent the share of votes for each party in a state. For instance, if a state loses a seat after the next census, members of a strong majority party could combine two districts currently held by the minority party.

Unless the governor is a member of the minority party and has veto power, there’s little that can be done to stop the maps from proceeding, short of going to court.

[How gerrymandering could decide whether your vote counts]

That’s why who controls state government come 2021 could have a big effect on how fair the maps are.

As it stands, Republicans control both houses of the state legislature and the governorship in 26 states, with Democrats in full control in only eight. In the rest, control is split.

The governor of

is a Democrat and a Democrat is favored to win in November, according to the Cook Political Report. On the legislative side, both the state Senate and the state House are controlled by Democrats.

Where one party controls the governorship and state houses

26

Republican control

FL

ID

IN

AL

AZ

AR

GA

IA

KS

MI

MO

NE

MS

NH

KY

ND

OH

OK

TX

TN

UT

WV

WI

SC

SD

WY

16

SPLIT control

CO

IL

AK

LA

Jazz Saucony CL Original Burgundy Sneakers Originals Women's MN

MT

ME

MD

MA

PA

NV

NC

NM

VT

NY

VA

8

DEMOCRATIC control

CA

DE

NJ

OR

RI

WA

CT

HI

Republican

control

SPLIT

control

DEMOCRATIC

control

26

16

8

CO

IL

HI

NJ

AK

LA

FL

AL

AZ

AR

GA

ME

CA

CT

DE

NV

MN

MT

ID

IN

KY

OR

RI

IA

KS

WA

MD

MA

MI

PA

MO

NE

NY

MS

NC

NH

NM

VT

SC

ND

OH

Saucony Jazz Burgundy CL Original Sneakers Women's Originals OK

SD

VA

TX

TN

UT

WV

WI

WY

Notes: Connecticut’s state Senate is a tie, but the tiebreaker goes to Democrats. Nebraska’s sole legislative chamber is technically nonpartisan but Republican in practice. One Democratic state senator in New York caucuses with Republicans, giving them control of the chamber.

Studies have shown that gerrymandering has happened more frequently in Republican states, but Democratic-controlled states are not immune.

Twelve states have been the subject of litigation this year related to the fairness of their maps. Maryland and Wisconsin maps were recently considered by the U.S. Supreme Court. Pennsylvanians will be voting under a new congressional map after the state’s Supreme Court recently redrew the boundaries.

Many of these states have both gubernatorial and legislative races this year that will determine who plays a role in redistricting.

States that have had recent legal challenges to their current maps

Key 2018 races for redistricting:

Governor

Both

None

WI

MI

PA

OH

MD

VA

NC

AR

GA

AL

TX

LA

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HI

Key 2018 races for redistricting:

Governor

Legislative

Both

None

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WI

MI

PA

OH

VA

MD

NC

AR

GA

AL

TX

LA

HI

In some states, citizens or lawmakers are trying to change the way they redistrict to make the process less susceptible to partisanship. An Ohio constitutional amendment that raises the level of bipartisanship required to approve a congressional map passed in May. Colorado, Michigan, Missouri and Utah will have reform measures on the ballot in November.

These reforms, if passed, would alter the power of state legislators to draw maps favorable to certain groups.

But if they fail, and in many other states, the 2018 elections will be an important indicator of whether there will be a check on maps that could govern political power across the country for the next 10 years.

Which 2018 elections could affect redistricting

Click on a column to sort the list.

Key 2018 elections for redistricting:
Governor  
Legislature   Reform efforts   Legal challenges to current maps
State
Governor
No. of key state leg. races
Current No. of House districts
Est. +/-
California
Solid D
0
53
0
Texas
Solid R
15
36
3
Florida
Tossup
20
27
2
New York
Solid D
0
27
-1
Pennsylvania
Likely D
25
18
-1
Illinois
Lean D
39
18
-1
Ohio
Tossup
17
16
-1 Originals Original Jazz CL Sneakers Women's Saucony Burgundy
Michigan
Tossup
38
14
-1
Georgia
Lean R
0
14
0
North Carolina
No race
0
13
1
New Jersey
No race
0
12
0
Virginia
No race
0
11
0
Indiana
No race
25
9
0
Tennessee
Likely R
18
Burgundy CL Saucony Originals Women's Sneakers Original Jazz 9
0
Massachusetts
Solid R
0
9
0
Arizona
Likely R
0
9
1
Maryland
Likely R
188
8
0
Minnesota
Tossup
0
8
-1
Missouri
No race
17
8
0
Wisconsin
Lean R
17
8
0
South Carolina
Likely R
0
7
0
Colorado
Lean D
17
7
1
Alabama
Solid R
140
7
-1
Louisiana
No race
0
6
0
Kentucky
No race
19
6
0
Connecticut
Tossup
0
5
0
Oklahoma
Solid R
24
5
0
Oregon
Likely D
17
5
1
Kansas
Likely R
0
4
0
Nevada
Tossup
11
4
0
Utah
No race
15
4
0
Iowa
Tossup
25
4
0
Mississippi
No race
0
4
0
New Mexico
Lean D
0
3
0
Nebraska
Solid R
Sneakers Jazz Original CL Originals Saucony Burgundy Women's 24
3
0
West Virginia
CL Sneakers Jazz Originals Women's Original Saucony Burgundy No race
17
3
-1
Rhode Island
Likely D
0
2
-1
New Hampshire
No race
0
2
0
Idaho
Solid R
0
2
0
Hawaii
Solid D
0
2
0
Maine
Tossup
0
2
0
Wyoming
Solid R
15*
1
0
Vermont
Solid R
0
1
0
Alaska
Tossup
10*
1
0
South Dakota
Solid R
0
1
0
Delaware
No race
10*
1
0
North Dakota
No race
48*
1
0
Montana
No race
0
1
0

* States with a single congressional district will not need to draw new boundaries unless they gain a seat in the next Census.

This story has been updated to reflect split control of New York. One Democratic state senator caucuses with Republicans, giving them the majority in the chamber. Also, Connecticut’s governor cannot veto congressional lines, so that race will not affect redistricting.

About this story

Data showing when state legislators and governors who will redistrict are going to be elected, number of key legislative elections per state (as of Aug. 7) and state balance of power (as of July 10) from National Conference of State Legislatures. Redistricting types and pending litigation from the Brennan Center for Justice.

Additional information from Wendy Underhill, redistricting expert at NCSL, and Laura Royden, a researcher formerly of the Brennan Center.

U.S. House reapportionment projections come from Election Data Services, Inc. The 2020 projections are based on population trends in Census estimates from 2014 to 2017.

Governor race rankings from Oversized Madden Open Circuit Tan Women's Heel Steve Buckle Toe Strap qvWHFFBPS

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